OBAMA STABILIZES IN RASMUSSEN POLL – AT 7:59 P.M. ET:  It's hard to know if anything actually caused this, like his handling of the McChrystal affair, but President Obama's poll numbers have solidified, after some days of threatening to go Bush.  Scott Rasmussen reports:

Overall, 45% of voters say they at least somewhat approve of the president's performance. Fifty-four percent (54%) disapprove.

While individual daily tracking results occasionally display the appearance of volatility, the long-term trend for the president’s numbers is remarkably stable. Over the past five months, with more than 150 updates, the president’s overall approval rating has been within four points of today’s result on every day but one. It has been within three points on every day but five. Keep in mind that those five months included the passage of health care, the Gulf Oil Spill, and a significant stock market decline. For the moment, nothing appears able to shift public perceptions of the president.

COMMENT:  If the president stays at about 45%, we have our work cut out for us.  While that's not a great number, it's not terrible either.  If Rasmussen's observations hold up, it may mean that Mr. Obama has a base that cannot be penetrated to any great degree, in part because of ethnic bloc voting. 

That also means that defeating Mr. Obama in 2012 may be much more difficult than many Republicans imagine.  The Democratic Party is a coalition of interest groups, whose only concern is whether they get their cut.  If they do, the votes come.  It's been that way, especially in big cities, for more than a century.

June 30, 2010